Well, I cant find the stock market thread, so for those are interested I just did some portfolio rebalancing.
LKNCY was clearly a home run and I am kicking myself that I only have 100K shares. I am likely to take a bit off the table when the inevitible pop from the relisting announcement comes through. I expect that to be someplace in the 35-40 range. likely to cash in about 20% of my holdings mostly out of the retirement accounts. Ill hold the balance as the valuation model suggests FMV with the current growth rates could get in the triple digit range.
I have trimmed quite a bit of my BCRX position and will continue to do so. As it stands right now, I am pretty pissed frankly. Management way oversold the prospects and I will not be surprised to see some shareholder lawsuits come into play (though they wont go anywhere.) I still believe they could get bought out tomorrow at $20/share with no problem, but management doesnt seem to playing along with the market and they are drunk with spending money. The factor D set back is significant enough that I will continue to reduce opportunistically. Not selling at these levels, but we will cycle back to the 11-12s over the next few months and I will exit some more there (though will keep a core position). I dont invest for buyouts because to me thats like chasing the tooth ferry. I hope you guys made some money.. My basis was low, so all of my sales are still returning gains of 150-200% which I will take all day long, but I believe you will be able to buy the stock at the end of the year for 10/share (unless there is a buyout), so I will put my money to work elsewhere.
New positions i just took (warning: this is not investment advice and I tend to take calculated but potentially very risky contrarian bets).
Made a starter investment in ZIM as an immeadiate dividend play. The div yield on this stock is about the best in the market. I expect the dividend (announced on March 12, so still time) to be over $8/share. Currently trading at 22.50, so that like a quick 33% roi, for holding for a couple months.. This is an Israeli global shipping company and its been crucified because container rates have come down and the threat of global recession has hammered it and while that may be true, the forward PE and the dividend are just too juicy to pass up. Im certinaly in this through the dividend payment and then will reassess. I see very little risk of loss on this one in the very short term. They are sitting on a mountain of cash and their bread and butter is thier dividend, so even with disappointing earnings (i think they surprise which they tend to do), they *should pay at least 6 per share on the div. Keep in mind that 25% of the dividend goes to the Israeli tax authorities, so that 8 becomes 6, etc.
The other one I took a position in as a hotel REIT, AHT. Severely beaten down hotel REIT that in my opinion is trading well below book value. I didnt open up a huge position, and the BS is UGLY, but they have made steady progress on their debt structure and most of their holdings are locked in so the flucutaions in interest rates to the high side shouldnt effect them too much. If the company was liquidated the assets would sell for substanitally more than the debt and the market cap is beaten down to like 150MM. I think this is a LK like play where if they can get can continue to improve, it could end up being a 10x in 2-3 years.
